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Euro/dollar trading at balance point


The euro/dollar closed up 26 points on Monday. It updated its session maximum to 1.1083 and from there it dropped to 1.1063. The euro/pound cross was siding with the euro bulls, so the euro felt much better against the dollar than the pound.

So the euro/pound on the hourly broke the 0.8375 resistance and a session rally to 0.8420 is expected from there. Because of this, the euro/dollar should test 1.11. In my forecast I’ve indicated a forming of an upward triangle.

Market Expectations:

It’s unlikely we’ll see a shift above 1.1115 since market participant attention this week is on the ECB meeting and Draghi holding a press conference. It’s expected that the ECB’s monetary policy will remain unchanged, but Draghi may cause a bit of a kafuffle on the market.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 11:30, UK CPI, PMI, RPI and housing price indices for May;
  • 12:00, German and Eurozone economic sentiment in July from ZEW;
  • 15:30, US construction permits issued in June and foundations lain for the month;
  • 17:05, BoE’s Broadbent to speak;
  • 23:35, API US oil reserves.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1058, maximum: 1.1100, close: 1.1058.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The situation in Turkey has shifted from the headlines. The euro/dollar has restored to the LB. The pair is balanced on the hourly and the price is readying to diverge by at least 0.61% from the balance line.

I reckon we’ll see an upward triangle form for the pair today. Due to a rise in the euro/pound to 0.8420, I’m expecting to see a test of 1.1100/1.1103 from the euro dollar, with a subsequent recoil to 1.1060.

If the euro lowers the 1.1063 Asian minimum without any growth, expect the formation of a V-shaped pattern: a fall to 1.1047/45 and a return of the rate to 1.1078/80. The euro/dollar will sit in a sideways until the ECB convenes.

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