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Euro dollar reaches upper limit of downward channel

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The euro/dollar updated its weekly maximum due to a general strengthening of the dollar after the publication of strong consumer confidence data. The report’s figures increased the chances of there being an interest rate hike from the Fed in September from 21% to 24%, thereby offering support to the US currency.

The Conference Board’s index for consumer confidence in August hit figures unseen since September of last year: 101.1 points. The data is significantly higher than expected (97.0) and that of July (96.7, reassessed from 97.3).

Market expectations:

On Tuesday the euro/dollar closed down. In Asia the GBP has fully recovered all of yesterday’s losses against the USD. Now it is trying to do the same with the euro.

The rate lifted from a minimum of 1.1132 to 1.1160. Going off the technical aspect and the cycles, I’d still say there’ll be a rise in the quotes. Only the US stats are knocking it down. As a result, a saw-like pattern with a double bull divergence has appeared on the hourly.

All market participant attention is on Friday’s US labour market report. Before it comes out the market will be in full swing. Today the monthly candle closes. For the buyers not to disappear before they need to, they have to close the month above 1.1197 (July’s maximum).

Day’s News (EET):

  • 09:00, Swiss consumer indicator for June from UBS, German retail sales in July;
  • 10:55, German unemployment changes in July;
  • 12:00, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for August and unemployment level for July;
  • 15:15, US NFP from ADP in July;
  • 15:30, Canadian GDP for June;
  • 16:45, US Chicago PMI in August;
  • 17:00, US incomplete housing sales in July;
  • 17:30, US oil reserves for the week ending 27th August.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: n/a, maximum: n/a, close: n/a.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

My yesterday’s expectations didn’t come off. The double bottom was not realized. After the publication of consumer confidence data in the US, the euro/dollar dropped to 1.1132. The price remains in a downward-facing channel. At the moment the price is up at the top limit of this channel; trading at 1.1158.

A double bull divergence has formed according to the AO indicator. An upward break in the channel puts the minimum target at 1.1208. Since the US stats are breaking all the patterns and tonight the ADP index is out, I haven’t bothered making a forecast. I am inclined to go for a strengthening of the euro as part of a correction after Yellen’s speech.

So could the euro go down, I hear you ask? It could. Anything could happen before the 1.1030-1.1050 zone.


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