Author: Hanlie Barnard, participant of the Analyst Contest
Although it is not 40 days till something, it is week 40 of this year and that could be a good week for the markets. USD is in a huge build-up to the election in America.
There is bigger news for the USD than there is for CAD. Thursday will be the crude oil inventories as usual. That could have an influence on the CAD if it is good news for oil. In my point of view the news to keep in mind is the speech of Yellen on Friday just before the markets close.
On the daily chart of the USD/CAD prices stay under the 200 Bollinger band from 14/03/2016 till Friday 08/03/2016. The candle closes above the 200 at 1.32967.
Pivot point: 1.32654
1Res: 1.33445 1 Sup: 1.32174
2Res: 1.33925 2 Sup: 1.31383
3Res: 1.35196 3 Sup: 1.30112
The first Fibonacci to the upside is the 0.5 at 1.35688 it could be a big resistance for the currency. If that is broken in the daily the next is the 0.618 Fibonacci at 1.38301.
To the downside is the 1.3000; a definite price to keep in mind. That is also the 0.236 Fibonacci.
For me this is a very interesting currency to trade with. Because of the influence of oil on the CAD, or CAD on oil. To be more specific: on WTI. The last couple of days last week there was times when it seemed as if USD and WTI were running together. But that was because of OPEC and their news.
Maybe we can see the USD/CAD visiting 2002/01 monthly high of 1.61960 in the days before the end of 2016. If not maybe it will go short to 2007/11/1 low of 0.90000.
Long or short this is an exciting currency pair to watch with everything going on in USA.
May this week be a good week for every trader, bull or bear.