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Long-term trading idea FX AUD/CHF – bear speculation: expected depart from the triangle downwards

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the currency pair has been in a correctional phase since the end of August 2015. The price has now returned to the trend line. The last fortnight has seen the market close down for the Aussie. The pair is readying for a drop. Now the sellers just need to pass two levels and strengthen below 0.7300 asap so as to activate a scenario in which we have a fall. After this the road to 0.6759 will open up. On its way it will meet the interim 0.7126 and 0.6918 levels.

Current situation

After a three year fall from 1.0349 to 0.6533 (-3816 points), the currency pair has been in a correctional phase since August 2015. The correction has lasted 62 weeks and its pattern looks similar to that of a triangle. The price has corrected to the trend line. We could say that the pair is readying to renew its downward movement along the trend.

I’ve marked out two triangles on the graph. The first is built along the maximum and minimum candle prices and the second is along the close prices. Now the sellers need to pass two levels and strengthen below 0.7300 asap so as to activate a scenario in which we have a fall. After this the road to 0.6759 will open up. On its way it will meet the interim 0.7126 and 0.6918 levels.

There is one thing, though, that’s troubling me. The corners of the triangle are set upwards. If the price flips downside up from 0.7367, the risks will rise of us seeing an upward break in channel A and the trend line. The price leaving upwards from the A channel will cancel our scenario for a fall.



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