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EUR/USD: market situation after US elections still uncertain


On Thursday the euro/dollar closed slightly down. By the end of the day the euro cheapened 19 points to 1.0890. The buyers didn’t manage to bounce from the 337th degree. The head of the Saint Louis Fed, Bullard, announced that the US Fed is planning to raise its base rate by 0.25% in December. Gold fell by 40 USD per ounce to $1252.39 and the euro fell to 1.0865 against the dollar.

Market expectations:

The situation has changed in Asia. The euro/dollar corrected to 1.0923. At the time of writing this analysis the euro is going for 1.0919. I am continuing to consider a correctional movement for the euro/dollar. I reckon that, after the euro’s weakening following the US elections, the flat will be extensive (more than just a week). In an ideal world we would like to see the buyers coming back to 1.0943.

Day’s News (GMT 3):

  • 10:00, German definitive October CPI and wholesale price index;
  • 12:30, UK September construction;
  • 17:00, FOMC member Fischer to speak;
  • 18:00, US preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from Michigan university for November;
  • 18:50, BoC’s Poloz to speak;
  • 21:00, US active drilling rigs according to Baker Hughes;
  • Day off in Canada for Armistice Day.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0876 (current Asian), maximum: 1.0945, close: 1.0929.

Euro/dollar rate on the 30-minute period. Source: TradingView

Today my forecast is on a 30-minute graph. Take a look at how the price has left the downward facing channel. If the price would’ve broken from 1.0900/05 then my scenario would’ve been for a fall of the euro to 1.0831. As it is I’m waiting for a restoral of the price to 1.0943. From trade opening in Europe the price could return to 1.0980/95. The break I the lower limit of the upward channel from 1.0865 will cancel any growth scenario.

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