On Thursday the euro/dollar closed up. Trader activeness on the Forex market remains low. Trading robots are doing the work for them. If yesterday the price fluctuations for the euro were less than one figure, then today we’ve already seen the euro rise 166 points against the dollar (to 1.0653) and 115 points against the pound (to 0.8664).
The head of ANZ currency sales in Tokyo, Shigeki Yoshitoshi said that the euro’s strengthening was down to robot trading. I agree with him because the low market liquidity before the new year means the space between orders can be large. As such, the lack of sell orders and low buy volumes has led to the pair growing to 1.0653. Speculators which were off the market at that time have used the strengthening of the euro to open short positions. At the start of the day after a rally it is a good tactic. The euro/dollar slid 97 points. The correction from the growth was over 70%.
The market is low on liquidity: this may be good for some and bad for others. There is no news behind the fluctuations. Trading at Alpari is finishing at 19:00 EET and will reopen on 2nd January, 2017 at 09:00 EET. In my forecast I’ve gone for a growth in the quotes to 1.0572.
Day’s News (GMT 3):
- 12:30, UK mortgage use for renovation in Q3 of 2016;
- 17:45, US business activity index in Chicago for December;
- 21:00, number of working drilling rigs according to Baker Hughes.
Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar
Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0515/20, maximum1.0653 (current Asian), close: 1.0565 (shortened day – until 19:00 on the terminal).
The euro has pleasantly surprised the euro bulls and ruined the mood of the mice with its strengthening. But really, what are they surprised for? The trading volumes are low, so that’s why there are risks of such fluctuations. No one knows when the black swan will take flight. This time she did so during the Asian session. The euro rose to 1.0653 and is now trading at around 1.0529.
From the 1.0372 minimum, the price has restored to 157 degrees. It has jumped up above the U4, but straight away returned back to the MA channel. The correction was 112 degrees. Here I have such a picture according to the cycles: a growth of the pair to 45 degrees (1.0572), then a fall to 1.0537. The market will the close at 19:00 EET at around 1.0565.