On Monday, trading on the euro closed slightly down and within Friday’s range (intraday bar). My expectations for Monday came off in full. In the first half of the day, the NFP report continued to provide support for the dollar. Given that the economic calendar was empty, euro bulls were easily able to induce a rebound from the trend line and return the price to 1.1408.
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 09:00 Japan: machine tool orders (Jun);
- 13:00 UK: MPC member Haldane speech;
- 13:00 USA: NFIB business optimism index (Jun);
- 14:00 UK: MPC member Broadbent speech;
- 15:15 Canada: housing starts (Jun);
- 17:00 USA: JOLTS job openings (May), wholesale inventories (May);
- 19:00 USA: FOMC member Brainard speech;
- 20:00 USA: FOMC member Kashkari speech.
EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
In Asia, the euro is currently trading 0.11% down. Sellers have broken through the trend line on the hourly timeframe. Because of this, I’m going to risk saying that the euro will weaken against the US dollar as far as the 90th degree at 1.1333. There’s a strong support at 1.1380. A breakout of this support would open the way to 1.1333 and lower. If sellers don’t manage this before the US session begins, there’ll be an increased risk of returning to 1.1433. If the hourly candlestick closes above 1.1410, we can forget about this scenario altogether.
This week, trader attention will be focused on the speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as she gives testimony in the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress; to the Committee on Financial Services in the House of Representatives on Wednesday, and the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs in the Senate on Thursday. As usual, traders will be looking for cues as to the Fed’s stance on interest rates. After a strong NFP report, she might drop some hints about rates. I’m betting that euro bulls will try to partially close their long positions before her speech, which will weaken the euro and allow the pair to undergo a correction after the 6th of July’s rally.