On Friday, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up above 1.18. Before a sharp jump, the pair had fallen to the LB. The dollar fell across the market after US inflation data was published. Market participants took this slowdown in inflation growth to mean that a hike in interest rates this year has become less likely. On this news, the euro/dollar rate rose to the 1.1847 mark.
The CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the US for June grew by 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%, previous: 0.0%). The CPI excluding food and energy also grew by 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%, previous: 0.1%).
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 12:00 EU: industrial production (Jun).
EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
On Friday, the 11th of August, the 112th degree held buyers up. From 1.1847, the rate corrected to 1.1820. At the time of writing this review, the euro is worth 1.1810 USD. The price is making its return to the broken trend line at 1.1910.
In my prognosis, I’m expecting the rate to drop to 1.1793. Since Monday’s economic calendar is virtually empty for Europe and the US, after we break the trend line at the 1.1704 low, be prepared for the euro bulls to take us back up to 1.1766.
If we look at the 4-hour timeframe, everything points to a drop in the price at least as far as 1.1780. If the rate goes below 1.1770, pressure on the euro will increase. By then, everyone will have already forgotten about US inflation. The possible breakout of the daily trend line from the 1.1119 low (20th of June) will give buyers cause for concern.
If the day closes above 1.18, we should see continued growth against the greenback on Tuesday. The euro/pound cross is trading within a narrow range around 0.9085.