On Friday the 15th of January, trading on the euro closed up. After a breakout of the 1.2090 resistance, the single currency surged against the dollar to reach 1.2219. This rally was initially brought about by reports of progress being made in coalition talks in Germany. It was later revealed that Chancellor Markel had struck a deal with a rival party, the Social democratic Party, on forming a new government. The euro was further propped up by expectations that the ECB is soon to start reducing the scale of its QE program.
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 09:00 Japan: machinery orders (Dec).
- 13:00 Eurozone: trade balance (Nov).
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView
The fundamentals have pushed the euro into overbought territory. This zone is located between the U3 and U4 lines. The U3 MA line diverges from the LB (sma 55) by 1%, while the U4 line diverges by 1.62%. The price is in this zone very rarely, and never for long.
Given the national holiday in the US today and the lack of economic events in Europe, my forecast for today is looking downwards. If Friday’s movements are in one direction, I predict Monday’s movements to go against Friday’s, without giving any consideration to the news.
In Asia, buyers have shifted the maximum to 1.2240. Having exited the wave structure, it’s time for a correction on the euro. The 45th and 67th degrees have been shifted to 1.2185 and 1.2157 respectively.
I’m well aware that as long as there are a lot of willing buyers for the dollar, the major players will be trying to push the euro up in order to change sellers’ minds and induce a reversal. When they start to believe that the euro is on the rise and start reversing their positions, the major players will abandon the euro to induce another reversal on our pair. 84% of open positions on the EURUSD pair at the moment are short.
On the current hour, the trend line runs through 1.2157. If we project this line into the future, then in the case of a decline, the price should meet this line at 1.2187 at 15:00 (GMT 3). I’m planning to take profit on the correction to the LB line.