On Friday the 2nd of February, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed down. The publication of employment data in the US brought about a sharp decline on the euro. The number of new jobs added exceeded expectations, while the previous figure was revised upwards.
200,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector in January (forecast: 178,000). The reading for November was revised from 252,000 to 216,000, while the reading for December was revised from 148,000 to 160,000. Unemployment in the US in January fell in line with the consensus of 4.1%. The average hourly earnings index posted a 0.3% rise (forecast: 0.3%, previous reading revised from 0.3% to 0.4%). The workforce participation rate came out at 62.7%.
Later on, the factory orders index and Michigan consumer sentiment index exceeded expectations. Factory orders grew by 1.7%, while the Michigan University consumer sentiment index came out at 95.7.
On this news, US 10Y bond yields jumped to 2.8584%, its highest value in 4 years. The euro slumped to 1.2049 before mounting a recovery to reach 1.2491.
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 11:50 France: Markit services PMI (Jan).
- 11:55 Germany: Markit services PMI (Jan).
- 12:00 Eurozone: Markit services PMI (Jan).
- 12:30 UK: Markit services PMI (Jan).
- 13:00 Eurozone: retail sales (Dec).
- 17:45 USA: Markit services PMI (Jan).
- 18:00 USA: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Jan).
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView
On Monday the 5th of February, trading on the euro opened down owing to a rise in US 10Y bond yields to 2.8717%. At the time of writing this review, the euro is trading at 1.2460. My intraday forecast for the week shows the euro dropping against the dollar to 1.2322 by the time trading opens in London on Wednesday the 7th of February.
The pair is still trading within the B-B channel. My forecast expects to see a rise to the 45th degree at 1.2480, followed by a drop to 1.2407. Because of the fact that the AO indicator is in negative territory, I’ve been debating whether my prediction should go as far as 1.2438 or 1.2707. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the euro will exit the B-B channel during the US session.