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Buyers get cold feet ahead of the ECB meeting

On Wednesday the 7th of March, during the European trading session, the US dollar showed some mixed dynamics. It’s currently trading down against the safe havens (yen, franc, gold), while trading up against the other majors (loonie, Aussie, Kiwi, pound).

The euro is on an upwards trend on the hourly timeframe, having recovered to 1.2445. The euro, yen, and Swiss franc have all enjoyed increased demand today in light of Gary Cohn’s resignation from his post as President Trump’s top economic adviser. Cohn had opposed the imposition of steel and aluminium import tariffs.

From its high of 1.2445, the euro has retreated to 1.2398. Due to an increased appetite for risk, the EURUSD pair has suffered at the hands of the EURJPY and EURCHF currency pairs, which are trading down. Also at the forefront of traders’ minds is tomorrow’s press conference with Mario Draghi, which will be held an hour and a half after the ECB meeting. I think that the regulator will avoid taking any drastic measures and that Draghi’s rhetoric will largely mirror that of the previous press conference.

Later in the day, the ADP employment report will be published in the US, as well as trade balance data. Also today, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision.

At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.2408. My target for the US session is 1.2387. There’s a break in the bullish trend on the hourly timeframe, so now is the time to act before the ADP report comes out. Ideally, the euro will drop to 1.2375 (LB).

Most of the euro crosses are currently trading up, so if the dollar declines, the euro will easily hit a new high of 1.2445. It’s essential to take the crosses into account in your trading and to keep an eye on their direction.

European data:

  • Eurozone - GDP (Q4): 0.6% QoQ, 2.7% YoY (forecast: 0.6% QoQ, 2.7% YoY, previous: 0.6% QoQ, 2.7% YoY).
  • UK - Halifax house prices (Feb): 0.4% MoM, 1.8% YoY (forecast: 0.4% MoM, 1.6% YoY, previous: -0.5% MoM, 2.2% YoY).

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