On Friday the 13th of April, trading on the single currency closed slightly up against the greenback. Trading was mixed, with the pair fluctuating within a range of 1.2307 – 1.2346 due to a lack of any new impetus.
The euro came under pressure from the publication of the minutes of the ECB’s meeting in March, while receiving support from the disappointing US data. The Michigan consumer sentiment index fell further than expected. Trading closed at around 1.2329.
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 10:15 Switzerland: producer and import prices (Mar).
- 15:30 USA: retail sales (Mar), NY Empire State manufacturing index (Apr).
- 19:00 USA: FOMC member Kaplan speech, FOMC member Kashkari speech.
- 20:15 USA: FOMC member Bostic speech.
- 23:00 USA: total net TIC flows (Feb).
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView
On Friday, our pair opted for the second scenario. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria subsided, so without any new impulses, the pair spent the session trading around the LB balance line.
On Saturday the 14th of April, the USA, UK, and France carried out an airstrike on military and civilian targets in Syria. Since there were no casualties, there was no clash with Russian forces to follow and markets opened relatively peacefully this Monday.
At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.2337. Taking the hourly cycles and patterns into account, as well as the indicators on the daily timeframe, I expect the euro to decline to 1.23 by the end of the day.
On the hourly timeframe, the trend line runs through 1.2320. There’s a risk of rebounding from this level and subsequently rising to the 45th degree (1.2356). We need to keep an eye on Europe as trading gets underway, as well as on the dynamics euro crosses and the US dollar. The EURGBP and EURJPY pairs are currently trading down, while the EURAUD, EURCHF, and EURCAD pairs are up. The dollar provides a mixed picture. It’s trading up against the franc, loonie, and euro, while trading down against the yen, Aussie, and Kiwi. If the hour closes above 1.2360, the case for a drop disappears.