Alpari - Analytics

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EURUSD: sellers have their eyes on 1.20

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On Thursday the 26th of April, trading on the euro closed down against the US dollar. Sellers broke the support at 1.2115 (low from the 1st of March). Volatility on the pair was high throughout the European session.

During Mario Draghi’s press conference, the euro recovered to 1.2210. This rise was made possible by Draghi’s remarks that the ECB didn’t discuss the value of the euro at their meeting. From the session high, the bears beat the bulls back to 1.2096. In the end, the euro produced movements totalling about 180 pips, not including the fluctuations that occurred ahead of the ECB rate decision.

Buyers, having clearly weighed the pros and cons, decided to short the euro. Draghi didn’t give any clear signals as to the end of the bond-buying program. He reiterated that the QE program would not be ended until the regulator was convinced that inflation was growing steadily. After QE comes to an end, key rates will remain at their current levels for a while to come. This is all written in the ECB’s press release and is repeated every meeting.

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 09:00 UK: Nationwide housing prices (Apr).
  • 09:30 Japan: BoJ press conference.
  • 09:45 France: consumer spending (Mar), CPI (Apr).
  • 11:00 Germany: unemployment rate (Apr), unemployment change (Apr).
  • 11:30 UK: GDP (Q1).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Apr), industrial confidence (Apr), economic sentiment indicator (Apr), business climate (Apr).
  • 15:30 USA: GDP (Q1), employment cost index (Q1).
  • 17:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Apr).
  • 20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

I said yesterday that Draghi’s press conference could easily push the euro up 100 pips, followed by an equal movement in the opposite direction. The total movement in both directions amounted to 180 pips, with the euro dropping from 1.2210 to 1.2096.

The bears stopped shorting the euro at the 90th degree. At the time of writing this review, the euro is trading at 1.2099. I’m forecasting a drop in the rate to somewhere within a range of 1.2072 – 1.2045. The area between the 112th and 135th degrees looks like a reversal zone to me, but I think we could see rates make it to 1.20; the lower line of the channel. The channel is visible on both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Now I’d like to draw attention to a couple of things. The euro dropped in tandem with US10Y bond yields. If bond yields continue to decline, the EURUSD pair could proceed to move sideways above the 90th degree within a range of 1.2095 – 1.2130 provided it gets some help from some of the crosses.

There are plenty of important events today, including a speech from Mark Carney.



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