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EURUSD: euro bulls trying to turn the tide

Previous:

  • On Thursday the 21st of June, trading on the euro closed up. Buyers recovered their morning and afternoon losses during the US session. The decline on the EURGBP pair stopped buyers in their tracks at around 1.1545. The euro cross came under pressure after the Bank of England meeting. The euro then followed the pound upwards, and recovered against the dollar from a low of 1.1508 to 1.1634.
  • The main catalyst behind the growth of the majors was the general decline of the dollar, which was brought about by the release of weak US data and a drop in US bond yields. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came out at its lowest value since November 2016. The leading economic index did rise, but still fell short of expectations.

US data:

  • Initial jobless claims (15 Jun): 218,000 (forecast: 220,000, previous reading revised from 218,000 to 221,000).
  • Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Jun): 19.9 (forecast: 29.0, previous: 34.4).
  • Leading economic index (May): 0.2% (forecast: 0.4%, previous: 0.4%).

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 10:00 France: Markit services PMI (Jun), Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).
  • 10:30 Germany: Markit services PMI (Jun), Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).
  • 11:00 Eurozone: Markit services PMI (Jun), Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).
  • 15:30 Canada: CPI (May), retail sales (Apr).
  • 16:45 USA: Markit services PMI (Jun), Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).
  • 20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Current situation:

  • There’s no chart in today’s review because the rate hit a new high in the last hour, which has messed up all the Gann lines. If we go based on yesterday’s chart, we have the rate trading inside a channel with a 1% range since the 15th of June. Sellers tested the strength of the lower boundary on Thursday, but failed to push below it. The pair subsequently rebounded upwards on the back of a broadly weakening dollar.
  • In Friday’s Asian session, the dollar is trading down against all the majors. At the time of writing, the euro is trading against it at 1.1633; around the 112th degree. Buyers are attempting to exit the range of 1.1515 – 1.1630. This will be difficult from a technical point of view as the hourly indicators are overloaded. An unsuccessful attempt at this will widen the channel, meaning that bulls will have to break the resistance, for which they will need to build up some momentum.
  • Keep an eye on the resistance zone of 1.1642 – 1.1650. If buyers don’t manage to slip through here at the beginning of the European session, this will confirm a false breakout of the channel. In that case, we can expect to see a correctional movement to 1.1590 (balance line, reinforced from below by the 45th degree).
  • A reversal candlestick has formed on the daily timeframe. Bulls are trying to take advantage of this and push the euro up. As the rate exits its range, the immediate targets will be 1.1670 and 1.1706.


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