On Thursday the 28th of June, trading on the euro closed slightly up. A technical correction along with the general weakening of the dollar pushed the euro up. Softer rhetoric from the Trump administration towards China led to increased demand for risky assets. The euro later recovered from 1.1527 to 1.1600. The daily candlestick closed at 1.1568.
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 09:45 France: consumer spending (May), CPI (Jun).
- 10:00 Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (Jun).
- 10:55 Germany: unemployment change (Jun), unemployment rate (Jun).
- 11:30 UK: current account (Q1), GDP (Q1), net lending to individuals (May), mortgage approvals (May).
- 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (Jun).
- 15:30 Canada: GDP (Apr), industrial product price (May).
- 15:30 USA: personal consumption expenditure – price index (May), personal spending (May), personal income (May).
- 16:45 USA: Chicago PMI (Jun).
- 17:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Jun).
- 20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView
In Asia, the single currency has sharply increased on the back of an announcement from European Council President Donald Tusk that EU leaders have reached a deal on migration. This caused the rate to jump by 0.85% to reach 1.1667. Growth stopped at the 112th degree.
At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1636, having recovered by 112 degrees. Given that the euro’s surge was brought about by fundamental factors, the euro crosses are all trading up. Shorting the euro against the crosses and a dollar in decline across the board is risky. Because of the crosses, I’m expecting the rate to recover to 1.1689 followed by a drop to 1.1655. If this happens quickly enough, we can entertain a further drop to 1.1624.
Trader attention today is focused on the EU summit, where an update on Brexit negotiations is expected.