This morning, the 17th of July, the EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1714 as we await the opening of the European session, which puts the euro slightly up (about 20 pips) over the last 24 hours. I don’t think that this growth over the last 24 hours is part of any kind of purposeful movement, but is rather just a pullback.
Looking at the fundamentals, the following events have the potential to significantly affect the dynamics of major currency pairs today:
- 11:00 (GMT 3) UK: BoE Governor Carney’s speech – could have a significant effect on the dynamics of the pound.
- 11:30 (GMT 3) UK: ILO unemployment rate (May), average earnings excluding bonus (May) – Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.2%. Average earnings excluding bonuses are expected to rise by 2.5%.
- 17:00 (GMT 3) USA: Fed’s Powell speech.
On the daily timeframe (D1), the EURUSD could potentially form a head and shoulders model:
The right shoulder has yet to fully form, however, so I wouldn’t yet open a trade on the basis of this model.
On the 4-hour timeframe (H4), the EURUSD pair is forming a descending triangle:
The 5th wave is currently being formed inside this wedge.
An analysis of the D1 and H4 charts tells me that while we currently lack any clear sell signals on the EURUSD pair, the sentiment is certainly bearish, and so pressure on this pair looks set to remain. I reckon we’ll see the pair hit some new lows pretty soon.