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Brent oil price analysis (27/07/18)

The price of Brent oil has stabilised over the last few days. Currently, BRNUSD is trading at around 74.79 USD, and just a few days ago the pair was trading near the 72 USD mark for one barrel.

Looking at the charts, the BRNUSD instrument on the daily timeframe (D1) continues to trade within the upwards channel, which has lasted for more than one year:

The graph shows that in recent days BRNUSD has been trying to restore the upward movement. Therefore, the question arises: how reliable is this attempt to resume the growth of the BRNUSD pair? I reckon that it is more probable that the price of oil will recover and grow in the near future on D1, rather than decline. However, the risks for opening a long position on the BRNUSD pair are quite high. For example, on the H4 timeframe BRNUSD is in a downwards trend:

The fact that BRNUSD in a downwards trend on H4 suggests that opening a long position for oil on D1 is quite risky as there are different trends on two timeframes.

However, D1 is more significant than H4 and therefore, according to the rules of graphical analysis, the probability that oil prices will rise is greater than the contrary.

Also, I want to draw your attention to the fact that on the weekly timeframe (W1) there is potential for the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern:

If, at the end of the week, the bullish engulfing pattern forms on W1, then on the weekly chart we will receive a reliable signal, indicating the stability of the price of oil near current levels. In this case, the probability of the upwards trend on D1 resuming will increase and the price of Brent oil may again rise to 78.50-80 USD per barrel.


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