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EURUSD: the euro is resting on the weekly support

On Thursday the 9th of August, trading on EURUSD closed down. Bears resumed the downtrend after the break of the trend line at 1.1582. By the close of trading, the euro fell to 1.1526, surpassing Monday's low (1.1530).

In the first half of the day, the major currencies were under pressure against the US dollar due to the collapse of NZD. It crumbled following the RBNZ's interest rate meeting in which the regulator decided to keep rates at the current level until 2020.

Before the opening of the US session, bulls tried to win back losses, but were crushed by the statements of FRB of Chicago President Charles Evans, who said he admits the possibility of two increases by yearend.

Day's news (GMT 3):

  • 09:45 France: industrial output (MoM) (Jun).
  • 11:30 UK: total business investment (QoQ) (Q2), GDP (YoY) (Q2), manufacturing production (MoM) (Jun), industrial production (YoY) (Jun), total trade balance (Jun), construction output (MoM) (Jun).
  • 15:30 Canada: net change in employment, unemployment rate (Jul).
  • 20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.
  • 21:00 USA: monthly budget statement (Jul).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Current situation:

The bears broke the trend line at 1.1530 and the 45th degree (1.1574). I will write about the reasons behind the drop in the afternoon review. It stopped at the 90th degree. Technically, nothing is keeping the price from sliding down to 1.1495.

On the weekly chart sellers haven't been able to pass 1.1510 since May. You can short the euro for a few weeks once the price falls below 1.15.

For today, we have a correction to 1.1550 , from 1.1560. Purchases are risky, so the risk to the deal needs to be reduced by 2-3 times. The stochastic oscillator is on top in the sell zone, so we do not know whether we will drop to 1.1520 or make a new Asian session low. The stochastic signal will be perceived by the trend, so it is unlikely that sellers will ignore it on the hourly timeframe.  

Today, traders' attention will be focused on British data and US CPI data.


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