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EURUSD: pair consolidating around the lower line of channel

Previous:

On Friday the 14th of September, trading on the EURUSD pair closed down. The greenback made gains across the board on the back of comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans as well as the closing of positions on risky pairs with JPY that came after news of new US sanctions against China. This brought the euro down to 1.1621.

Evans said that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed raises the key rate 4 times this year. President Trump has insisted on new levies on Chinese products to the tune of 200bn USD.

US data:

  • Michigan consumer sentiment index (Sep): 100.8 (forecast: 96.5, previous: 96.2).
  • Business inventories (Jul): 0.6 (forecast: 0.5%, previous: 0.1%).

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (Aug).
  • 13:00 Germany: German Buba monthly report.
  • 13:15: Eurozone: ECBs Praet speech.
  • 15:30 Canada: foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jul), Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jul).
  • 15:30 US: NY Empire state manufacturing index (Sep).

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Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

My expectations on Friday of a drop to the balance line played out perfectly. The bulls encountered some resistance around the 135th degree at 1.1722. After a bearish engulfing, pressure on the euro increased. In the US session, the euro fell to 1.1621, marking a drop of around 90 degrees.

So, what’s in store this week?

I’m getting a rather ambiguous picture. On the hourly timeframe, cycles and patterns show the euro dropping to 1.1545 by Thursday, while the 4-hour timeframe suggests a rise to 1.1724. Maybe this will result in a sideways trend this week.

On Monday at 12:00 (GMT 3), the Eurozone will release its consumer inflation report for August. This is an important indicator for the ECB, so it’s worth paying attention to it. This could act as a trigger during the European session.

If the US imposes more import duties on Chinese goods, then there’s a good chance of our pair following my hourly scenario (red line). Since the EURUSD pair closed down on Friday, and the economic calendar is bare today, I expect quotes to rise to 1.1667.

Buying from the trend line is risky at the moment because the pair has been trading within an upwards channel for a while (6 days, 14 hours) and the hourly stochastic is in the sell zone, not the buy zone. The balance line is currently hovering just over 1.1660.


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