On Friday the 28th of September, trading on the euro closed down. The euro dropped to 1.1570 over the course of the European session. The single currency came under pressure over concerns about Italy’s budget for 2019. Investors fear that the budget deficit will reach 2.4% of GDP, where they originally expected just 1.6%. The Italian FSTE MIB index has fallen by 3.74% on these fears. Italian 10-year bond yields surged on the back of this selloff.
In the US session, the euro regained ground against the dollar to reach 1.1630. The Canadian dollar may have led to the closing of short positions ahead of the weekend after it shot up against the greenback following optimistic remarks from BoC Governor Steven Poloz. He hinted at a rate hike in October and favourable GDP data.
Day’s news (GMT 3):
- 10:15 Switzerland: real retail sales (Aug).
- 10:15 Spain: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep).
- 10:30 Switzerland: SVME – PMI (Sep).
- 10:45 Italy: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep).
- 10:50 France: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep).
- 10:55 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep).
- 11:00 Eurozone: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep).
- 11:30 UK: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep), net lending to individuals (Aug), M4 money supply (Aug), mortgage approvals (Aug).
- 12:00 Eurozone: unemployment rate (Aug).
- 16:45 USA: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep).
- 17:00 USA: ISM manufacturing PMI (Sep), construction spending (Aug).
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.
The decline on the EURUSD pair came to an end just below the 180th degree at the D3 MA line (blue). It then rebounded upwards by 45 degrees.
The euro has opened down in today’s Asian session. I reckon that this upwards correction will continue to 1.1650. The balance line will make it to this level in time for the US session, which will act as a resistance to buyers.
For today, I don’t see the pair dropping any further than 1.1570. This is according to cycles, patterns, and the wave structure. If the euro rises to 1.1650 as per my forecast, we’ll need to take a look at the impulse structure and at how the euro crosses behave.
If the euro remains under pressure, and the other majors are ready for a decline against the greenback, one might consider going short from 1.1650. This level is just a rough estimate. As our pair approaches this level, we’ll need to re-evaluate the viability of a short position, because growth could go as far as 1.1685 on the back of the dollar’s correction.