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EURUSD: pressure on the single currency won’t ease up

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On Monday the 12th of November, trading on the EURUSD pair closed down. The euro shed 1% against the greenback to reach 1.1216. This was facilitated by a strengthened dollar, in addition to increased demand for the safe haven assets. Investors are concerned over US-Sino trade relations, as well as the uncertainty over Italy and Brexit. The UK has failed to reach a breakthrough concerning the Irish border, while Italy remains defiant over its 2019 budget.

Since there were national holidays in the US and Canada, bond markets were closed. Activity was low on the Forex market. The major US indices took a dive, while the US dollar index made gains.

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 12:30 UK: claimant count change (Oct), ILO unemployment rate (Sep), average earnings (Sep).
  • 13:00 Germany: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Nov).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Nov).
  • 22:00 US: monthly budget statement (Oct).

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Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

During Monday’s European session, our pair dropped to the D3 MA line (SMA with a period of 55 and a deviation of 1%). The pair rebounded from this line, but this was short-lived, and with a thin market given the day off in the US and Canada, the drop then continued with renewed vigour.

From 1.1216, the euro recovered to 1.1252. Considering that the stochastic indicator is up, I’m expecting a new wave of sales ahead of the US session. If the bears do everything right, I see nothing stopping them from reaching 1.1207.

If we draw a line through the minima 1.1240 and 1.1216, then the target for sellers is 1.1190. The targets on the daily timeframe are 1.1150 and 1.1025.


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