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EURUSD: euro bulls preparing to break through 1.1350

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On Wednesday the 14th of November, trading on the euro closed slightly up. Fluctuations on the GBPUSD pair exerted their influence on the single currency throughout the day. The fluctuations on the British pound were the result of contradictory reports on Brexit. The pound and euro closed up against the dollar. The euro closed against the dollar at 1.1323.

After a Cabinet meeting, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she had won the backing of her ministers for a draft withdrawal agreement with the EU. She believes that this is “the best that could be negotiated”.

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 12:30 UK: retail sales (Oct).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: trade balance (Sep).
  • 15:15 Eurozone: ECB’s Cœuré Speech.
  • 16:10 Eurozone: ECB’s Praet speech.
  • 16:30 US: retail sales (Oct), initial jobless claims (9 Nov), NY Empire State manufacturing index (Nov), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Nov), import price index (Oct).
  • 19:00 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (9 Nov).
  • 19:30 US: Fed’s Powell speech.
  • 21:00 US: FOMC member Bostic speech.
  • 23:00 US: FOMC member Kashkari speech.

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Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

My expectations of a return to the balance line yesterday were proven entirely correct. Growth on the pair continued from the 45th degree. The 67th degree above provided resistance to buyers. The euro has rebounded from it twice, but given that the pair is trading down in Asia and the euro crosses are trading up, I think it worth preparing for a jump to 1.1382. If the bulls manage to gain a bit of momentum here, they should be able to test the 1.1400 mark. I think the bullish impulse will only take them as far as the upper line of the upwards channel.

There are a lot of speeches today, including from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Inflation data for October was released in the US yesterday. This fell in line with market expectations, but according to experts, this hasn’t provided the Fed any reasons to speed up their rate hike trajectory. The more ambitious the euro’s growth against the dollar, the less likely we are to see it drop to 1.1215.


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