On Wednesday EURUSD traded sideways within a 50-pip range. As the US session was closed, volumes were low and volatility was high. In the first half of the day's trading in Europe, the euro rose to 1.1361. Good news came from the strengthening of the pound and news on the progress in the negotiations between Rome and Brussels. Sellers used a thin market and followed in buyers' footsteps. With growth above 1.1320, buyers began to reenter long positions.
Day's news (GMT 3):
- 10:00 Germany: factory orders (Oct).
- 16:15 US: ADP employment change (Dec).
- 16:30 US: trade balance (Oct).
- 16:30 Canada: exports (Oct).
- 18:00 US: factory orders (Oct), ISM non-manufacturing index s.a. (Nov).
- 19:00 US: EIA crude oil stocks change.
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.
My expectations proved correct concerning the return of the price back to the lb, as for the price model, not so much. I believe the euro's drop to 1.1311 was due to the manipulative actions of the sellers in the thin market. It was easy to cause the pair to drop, since all major currencies at that time were trading in the minus against the dollar.
So what can we expect from the market after the price returns to the lb balance line?
The truce between the US and China is receding to the background. The yet and franc are now trading up against the dollar. Defensive stocks are in the black, the rest are in the red. Are sellers preparing once more for an offensive?
According to the forecast, today I'm expecting the pair to rise to 1.1391. The path to the 67th degree is now open to buyers. If the hourly candle closes below 1.1330, then you can forget about any growth. In this case, you need to prepare for the breakout of the channel (1.1300) and for the euro to weaken to 1.1285.