On Tuesday the 18th of December, trading on the euro closed up. Multidirectional dynamics were observed throughout the day. During the first half of the European session, the euro rose to 1.1402. During the US session the euro lost its gains, dropping to 1.1350. The pressure on the US dollar was caused by doubts by market participants that instead of the planned three rate hikes in 2019, there would be two.
In addition, the US President has been pressing the Fed. On Tuesday, he expressed hope that Fed would think twice and not raise rates.
The price of Brent crude fell by almost 6%, putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. Thus, major pairs corrected at the end of the day, and EURUSD dipped to 1.1350.
Day's news (GMT 3):
- 11:30 UK: CPI (Nov), PPI (Nov).
- 14:00 UK: CBI industrial trends survey orders (Dec).
- 16:30 Canada: CPI (Nov).
- 16:30 US: current account (Q3).
- 17:00 Switzerland: SNB quarterly bulletin.
- 18:00 US: existing home sales (Nov).
- 18:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (Dec 14).
- 22:00 US: FOMC economic projections.
- 22:30 US: FOMC press conference.
I did not prepare a forecast today due to the FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference.
In Asian trading, the euro rose against the dollar by 33 pips. It is currently trading at 1.1392. Buyers are approaching a resistance at 1.1400. The market compressing towards the resistance, which is a bullish signal that buyers are ready to move northward to 1.1428.
It is still unknown where exactly the pair will close, but the likelihood of a rise to above 1.1450 has increased. If the US Fed doesn't raise rates today, the euro will jump to 1.15. If the Fed raises rates by 25 base points and confirms a three-fold hike in 2019, the euro will fall to 1.1340. Traders are awaiting the Fed's press conference which will determine whether the euro will close up or down on Wednesday.