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EURUSD: bulls dealt a blow by Weidmann

Previous:

On Thursday the 31st of January, the euro pared nearly all the gains it made it the aftermath of the FOMC meeting. The pair suffered a sharp drop on the back of comments made by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. He said that the German economic growth rate will be significantly slower than the 1.5% predicted leading into 2019. The euro dropped to 1.1436 in response to these remarks.

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 11:30 Switzerland: real retail sales (Dec), SVME – PMI (Dec).
  • 11:50 France: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jan).
  • 11:55 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jan).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jan).
  • 12:30 UK: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jan).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: CPI (Jan).
  • 16:30 US: nonfarm payrolls (Jan), unemployment rate (Jan), average hourly earnings (Jan), average weekly hours (Jan).
  • 17:45 US: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jan).
  • 18:00 US: ISM manufacturing PMI (Jan), Michigan consumer sentiment index (Jan).
  • 21:00 US: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

My expectations yesterday that the euro would drop were met in full. The only thing that I didn’t imagine is that the euro would drop any lower than 1.1470 ahead of the payrolls report.

In Asia, the rate dropped below the trend line drawn from 1.1290, testing the 67th degree. I reckon that the rate is going to stop around this level, and will stay there until the payrolls report is released.

US employment data is the centre of attention today. The payrolls report has a strong, albeit short-lived effect on the Forex market. Traders will also have their eyes on the talks taking place between the US and China.

Liu He, vice premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, has announced that China is set to sign a trade deal with the United States. US President Donald Trump has also said that the US is hoping to reach a final deal with China by the 1st of March.

Without taking the NFP report into account, cycles indicate that the pair will rise until the end of the day, and will then revisit Friday’s low on Monday. We’ll see whether or not the NFP fits in with the cycles. The LB balance line is providing resistance at 1.1457. If the NFP report is weak, we can expect a jump to 1.1490. If it’s strong, expect a drop to 1.1400. These levels are only rough estimates, because speculators take a lot of the report’s aspects into account. Moreover, this payrolls report is coming out soon after an FOMC meeting, so the reaction to it could be muted and remain within a 50-pip range.


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