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EURUSD: pair approaching reversal zone at 112 – 135 degrees

Previous:

On Monday the 1st of April, trading on the euro closed down. The euro collapsed to 1.1204 during the American session. US services and manufacturing PMI data sparked a rise in US10Y bond yields. This caused the dollar to rise, and the euro to fall.

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 09:30 Switzerland: CPI (Mar).
  • 10:00 Eurozone: ECB’s Praet speech.
  • 11:30 UK: Markit construction PMI (Mar).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: PPI (Feb), unemployment change (Feb).
  • 15:30 US: durable goods orders (Feb).
  • 23:30 US: API weekly crude oil stock (25 Mar).

Current situation:

I’m tired of the situation with Brexit, so I’ve decided not to include a chart in today’s review. The pound gained ground against the dollar yesterday to revisit Friday’s high. Traders were hoping that the UK would decline to leave the EU without a deal. In Asia, the GBPUSD pair dropped from 1.3115 to 1.3026. The British parliament approved a process for voting on 4 alternative Brexit scenarios.

The news is causing swings in both directions on the EURGBP cross, which in turn is affecting the EURUSD pair. US data and bond yields are adding to the confusion. Once again we have uncertainty on the market.

The biggest losers today are the pound and the Aussie dollar. The Aussie has dropped in response to the RBA downgrading its inflation forecast in its monetary policy statement, while the pound has dropped over inaction over Brexit.

The euro is weak from the pressure being exerted on it via the crosses. It’s worth noting that there’s been a sharp drop in US10Y bond yields, and this favours the euro. The technical picture on the hourly timeframe from the 28th of March looks more like a long flat than a trend movement. Bullish attempts to induce an upwards reversal are being scuppered by fundamental factors. I have no idea what’s going to happen with the euro given that markets are under pressure from Brexit, and officials are arguing amongst themselves. The 112th degree at 1.1189 marks a reversal level. After this, the road is open towards 1.1165. We might see the beginning of a correction from this zone.


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