Alpari - Analytics

Alpari

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Daily analytical report (21/05/19)

  • May is definitely an interesting month on the market. It’s hard to say if this is the month of USD, safe heavens, or maybe even bitcoin. After analysing many charts, I can say that so far, it looks like we are denying strong movements that were created in the first half of the month and the vast majority of assets are going in the opposite direction to which they were going at the beginning of May.
  • The first instrument is USDCHF, which had a very strong buy signal a few weeks ago. The price broke the horizontal and dynamic resistances and created a nice looking correction. USDCHF broke the upper line of this correction, which gave us a proper buy signal. That was a false breakout, though, and the price dropped like a rock. We came back below the green area and this week, the price successfully tested that as a resistance. As long as we stay below, we have a sell signal.
  • Next up is gold, where we also are under the influence of a false breakout pattern. That false breakout happened after the price broke the upper line of the bullish wedge pattern. Instead of climbing higher, we reversed and went lower. Now, the price is below two major resistances, fighting on the last hopes of buyers - a yearly upwards trend line.
  • The reason for weak gold is in the stronger USD. EURUSD is currently close to monthly lows with very high chances of going even lower. The situation here is very simple. On the 13th of May, sellers defended a major horizontal resistance, and on the 16th, they broke a major dynamic support. After those two actions, the signal to go short is pretty strong.

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