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EURUSD: potential recovery to 1.1303


On Wednesday the 3rd of July, trading on the euro closed slightly down. Wednesday’s movements were similar to Tuesday’s, which has seen the formation of a sideways trend with a slight downwards bias.

Due to the US national holiday, data releases were pushed forward to Wednesday. The number of new jobs created in the private sector turned out worse than expected, which caused a short-term decline on the dollar. US bond yields created some additional volatility. The services PMI and factory orders data disappointed markets. Still, the euro dropped before the daily candlestick closed. This market behavior is most likely connected to Independence Day (4th of July).

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: retail sales (May).
  • 24hr US: Independence Day.

Current situation:

At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1282. The EURUSD pair is consolidating within a slight downwards trend. The pair hasn’t reached the 135th degree. But under the current pricing model, we could see another low at 1.1265. Considering that the US has a national holiday today and the European economic calendar is virtually empty, I expect the euro to recover to 1.1303.

The US jobs report comes out of Friday, which is a key event for markets. The ADP report was worse than expected, so markets are now expecting a weak showing from the NFP report. The weak numbers neutralised the upwards revision of previous readings. With this in mind, the bigger picture on our pair is varied.

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