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EURUSD: weekly timeframe shows euro on verge of collapse

On Thursday the 26th of September, trading on the euro closed down. In the US session, the pair slumped to 1.0909. The 90th degree provided some temporary support. The greenback continues to enjoy increased demand amid continued uncertainty surrounding the UK’s departure from the European Union, as well as from weak European data.

Day’s news (GMT 3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Sep), economic sentiment indicator (Sep), industrial confidence (Sep), business climate (Sep).
  • 15:30 US: durable goods orders (Aug), personal income (Aug), personal spending (Aug).
  • 17:00 US: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Sep).
  • 20:00 US: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Current situation:

Trading on the pair fluctuated throughout the day. The bears took advantage of the rise to 1.0967 to open some short positions. The euro is still looking weak and could continue its downtrend through the end of the year. The single currency has been under pressure since the end of June, and this pressure has only increased week by week. The 1.0880 – 1.0910 range is a key support. If this falls, it will open the way towards 1.0590. On the weekly timeframe, the conditions are ripe for the euro’s collapse.

The US and China are preparing for another round of talks. The Chinese trade minister expressed hope that talks with the US would yield a situation that pleases both sides. Today we’re looking for a double base to form to give the pair a chance to correct to around 1.1010. The 112th degree (1.0883) is providing support. It’s better to go with the trend rather than trying to trade on any rebounds. Even if everything goes according to plan, the bears could come back in force from the LB. We need some compelling factors if we’re going to see a reversal, and there are currently none for the euro.

If you’re looking to make some short-term buys, it would be best to wait for the stochastic to enter the buy zone. It’s also essential to take a look at the EURGBP cross before going long on the euro. If the cross is declining, and there are no signs of a reversal, it would be better to refrain from buying.

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