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EURUSD: trend line breakout from 1.1040 expected

On Tuesday the 17th of December, the euro was six points up at the end of trading. The two-day price is consolidating at 1.1145 amid the growth of the EURGBP pair. After an initial correction, the GBP price is now under pressure after the parliamentary elections. After an unsuccessful attempt to kick start growth, there were more people wishing to sell the pound, and this has boosted the euro.
Across three days, the pound fell by 4.4 big figures, and bears were able to claw back their losses.

Pressure on the GBP intensified after statements by PM Boris Johnson, who stated that he would not allow further extension of the Brexit transition period. Investors fear that the UK will not have appropriate time to prepare trade agreements with the EU and other countries by the end of next year.

In the US session, the euro fell from a high of 1.1175 to 1.1145 (-30). The decline was facilitated by data coming out of America. Industrial production in November increased by 1.1% compared with the previous month (forecast was 0.8%).

Today’s news (GMT 3):

  • 12:00 Germany: IFO - Business Climate (Dec), IFO - Current Assessment (Dec), IFO - Expectations (Dec).
  • 12:30 UK: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov), Retail Price Index (MoM) (Nov), Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a (Nov).
  • 13:00 Eurozone: Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) (Nov).
  • 16:30 Canada: BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Nov).
  • 17:00 Switzerland: SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q4).
  • 18:30 USA: EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Dec 13).


Current situation:

Flat expectations were justified, but not in that price model - against the background of a weakening pound and an increase in crosses with the euro, the EURUSD pair managed to recover to 1.1175 and beat Monday’s high.

At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1137. Major currencies are trading in the red. The focus of market players is on inflation data from the UK and the Eurozone. According to our calculations, the euro should decrease to 1.1093 (90th degree, and the lower channel area). To implement a “bearish” scenario, bears need to beat 1.1125. It is worth abandoning the “bearish” scenario when the hourly candle closes above 1.1175.

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