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EURUSD: long-term consolidation benefits bears

20 December

On Thursday the 19th of December, the euro finished the day’s trading seven points up against the US dollar (four digits). The GBP lost all gains made off the back of the results of the recent parliamentary elections, which the Conservative Party won. The euro weakened due to the slowdown in the five-day growth of the EURGBP cross pair. Investors fear that an agreement on trade between the UK and the EU is unlikely to be reached before the deadline (December 2020). The AUD experienced the strongest results yesterday, rising in value on the back of strong employment data published by the Australian government.

Today’s events (GMT 3):

  • 10:00 Germany: Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jan).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: Current Account s.a (Oct).
  • 12:30 UK: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3), Public Sector Net Borrowing (Nov), Total Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3).
  • 15:00 UK: BoE Quarterly Bulletin (Q4).
  • 16:30 Canada: Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct).
  • 16:30 USA: Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3).
  • 18:00 USA: Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) (Nov), Personal Income (MoM) (Nov).
  • 21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.
Рис. 1

Current situation:

On Thursday, the euro fell to 1.1107. Bears established a favourable environment, but could not breach 1.1102, set on December 13. The price fell, but did not reach the calculated target of 1.1090/95. The euro weakened due to the slowdown in the five-day growth of the EURGBP cross pair, which was affected by the collapse of the British pound.

The current value is 1.1115. Support was formed in and around the 1.1100-1.1110 zone. We think it’s not unusual that stops accumulated there.

On Friday, the euro will continue to weaken, and the pound is set to make gains. Attention should be aimed at observing the behavior of the cross currency pairs. At 12:30 and 15:00 (Moscow time), British statistics will be released. This could act as a trigger for sharp price fluctuations in the GBPUSD and EURUSD pairs. Today, there are two targets: 1.1095 and 1.1080. If we see the hourly candle close above 1.1155, then the predictions for such scenarios will fly out of the window.


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