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Euro strengthens in thin market

On Thursday the 26th of December, the euro 11 points up (1.1096) at the close of trading. There was no news to explain the recovery in price. Rising global stock indices and the general weakening of the dollar after Christmas helped to strengthen risky assets. These include the euro. Stock indices set new historic highs amid optimism in US-Chinese relations. Trump says the trade agreement is being translated into Chinese and will be concluded in early January 2020.

Day’s events (GMT 3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: Economic Bulletin.
  • 19:00 USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Dec 20).
  • 21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.

Рис. 1

Current situation:

In Asian trading, the euro was up by 22 points (1.1122). The market will remain thin until the New Year. Yesterday, we wrote that we are more inclined see a strengthening in the euro until the end of December. According to seasonal cycles, statistics show that in the last week of December, the euro has strengthened 16 times (80%) out of 20 since 1999.

The Forex market remains in a festive mood after Christmas, bulls broke through the trend line. The price went up within the upwards channel. Stopped at 45 degrees from the low of 1.1069. In theory, the price should jump back up to the 67th degree - 1.1145.

Рис. 1

We are concerned about several points, because of these points we do not like to trade in a thin market:

  • Decline in growth;
  • The euro index ran into resistance near the trend line, which passes through 102.11. We need a news item to provide the reason for a breakthrough before the weekend. The news calendar is empty, so you do not know what will act as a trigger for the offensive;
  • Stochastic is already in the sales area;
  • A third peak was formed at AO.

If the euro index breaks resistance, the growth of EURUSD pair will accelerate. By the end of the year, we predict strengthening of the euro.


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