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EURUSD: market waits on Lagarde speech

On Wednesday, March 11, trading on the euro was down at the close. In the American session, the EURUSD pair returned to the bottom line of channel D3. The market situation remains uncertain. The World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus to be a global pandemic. Against the backdrop of this report, US stock indices again came under pressure. The euro fell ahead of the ECB meeting.

The speech given by US President Donald Trump also did not live up to expectations and contributed to the sale of risky assets. In his address to the nation, the president said he would instruct the US Treasury to postpone some tax payments, and urged Congress to immediately approve tax breaks on wages, which would give the economy extra liquidity of more than $200bn. USD.

Today’s news (GMT 3):

  • 13:00 Eurozone: Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Jan).
  • 15:30 USA: Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Feb), Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Mar 6).
  • 15:45 Eurozone: ECB Deposit Rate Decision.
  • 16:30 Eurozone: ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference.
EURUSD pair returned to the bottom line of channel D3 12032020

Current situation:

Market expectations were fully met. The price dropped to the lower line of the MA channel from the balance line (Lb). In Asian trading, the price quickly returned to the Lb. The increase in quotes was facilitated by the flight to the yen, franc and euro (as the funding currency). Oil prices collapsed by 6%. Futures on the S&P500 and DJIA indices fell by 5%.

At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1303. This review comes without a forecast, since an important event for the single currency is planned for today - the ECB Governing Council will meet. Later, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech. Market players expect that the regulator will take measures to weaken the monetary policy and reduce the rate on deposits from -0.5% to -0.6%.

If there were to be no ECB meeting today, then we would consider an increase to 1.1390. After the morning rise, the current price pattern is ideal for growth, but Lagarde's press conference brings further uncertainty to the market. Softening monetary policy and the news surrounding the pandemic will put pressure on the euro, so you need to fix your profits on long positions in a timely manner so as not to be caught up in a drawdown.


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