The EURUSD pair traded to the downside on Monday, September 7. The euro fell 0.20% against the US dollar to 1.1812. Yesterday was a statutory holiday in the US and Canada, so the euro drifted from 1.1855 to 1.1811. The pound depreciated faster against the dollar as it was sold in crosses amid tense Brexit talks.
The talks are once again deadlocked as neither side has shown willingness to make concessions. The German spokesman said the UK must make certain concessions in order for the negotiations to be successful. Conversely, UK Minister Boris Johnson insists that EU member countries should agree to his terms of the free trade deal and finalize the Brexit agreement by October 15.
Today’s macro agenda (GMT 3)
12:00 Eurozone: GDP growth rate and employment change (Q2)
22:00 US: consumer credit change (July)
Our expectations for yesterday’s session were justified. The euro slipped to 1.1811. In Asian trading on Tuesday the price dropped to 1.1795. Brisk trading activity has been seen since early this morning. S&P 500 index futures gained 0.68% (3,440). Once 3.468 is reached, buyers will have pared 50% of their losses on September 3 and 4, when the index fell 6.67% to 3,347.
Upside in equity indices is a net positive for the euro. Pressure on the single currency is now coming from the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday. Investors are afraid that after the recent remarks by the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane, the regulator might decide to scale up its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). Technically speaking, the pair is pushing higher towards the 1.1850 level. If our forecast hits the mark today, the key pair could move higher by Thursday.