U.S. futures are trading higher despite the concerns about Greece remain the main focus for traders today. It seems like there is no ending to this saga anytime soon, as both sides – the creditors and Greek officials, keep moving further apart rather than establishing a common ground. No wonder it is having a huge impact on Greek bond yields which is flirting with its highs.
However, traders are going to shift their focus towards other more important economic data which is due today. For instance, we do know that the U.S. labour market is growing more stronger as this was shown by the NFP data last week and it is this strength of the economy, which is producing on average of 336K jobs during the last three months. For president Obama and for the U.S. federal reserve bank, it represents their hard work and if you want to see a strong data like this in the past, you have to go and pick up the economic calendar which is 15 years old.
With this in mind, the weekly jobless claims data which is due today could further cement positive tone for the U.S. and the forecast is for 287K which is once again below the number of 300K. Despite this, the focus for many investors will remain towards the wage growth, as for them, this has become a more important indicator. The previous data have shown that the wage inflation is picking up, but we do need to see consistency for this number before we can be more confident about the trend.
The fact is that the retail sales number which I always think is the most naked form of confidence is not picking up, given that oil has dropped so much and the consumer confidence data itself has risen, we should see a strong uptrend for the retail number.
We think that today’s retail number could once again print another negative reading today given that consumer spending is still suppressed.