European markets have recovered some of their losses yesterday which took place last week but we are still far away from home and we need some serious momentum and strength from investors if we are going to surpass the previous highs. With Greece, being the thorny issue for traders, stout commitment is missing its charm. If there was a time when the u certainty about the Greek future was anchored towards its peak, it must be during these days, as investors have no clue what the Greek finance minister has hidden under his sleeves this time and if the Greek government will be able to find a reliable solution with its creditors which will give them a reasonable breathing space.
While we have bond market on one extreme end – Germany, where investors are willing to pay to lend their money with most of the bond yields trading below zero and on the other side, we have the bond yields sky high, Greece, where the 10 year yield is above 13%. Both GG are traveling in a complete opposite direction representing that bond market is out of whack. Time is not on their side, with day and every second passed, there is only beat playing and it’s keeps on getting louder that Greece will default on its debt and a strong possibility exist that they can be kicked out of the euro. Although, we maintain our view that such an activity cannot be without its consequence and could bring a much bigger episode of uncertainty than Lehman crisis.
Back in the U.S., the strong dollar remains the major concern among export based companies. IBM earnings were depressed yesterday and a major dent took place on the back of a strong dollar. As more and more companies will report this week, investors will get much clear idea how well these companies have hedged their currency risk and how badly the stronger dollar has made them less attractive.
In terms of economic calendar, we have the German Zew economic data due this morning and the forecast is for 55.6. A better number could certainly help the DAX to recover its losses.