Investors have been caught twice on the wrong side of the trade during the past few days and paid heavy price for this. First, it was the UK election opinion polls that dragged the currency lower and spiked back up sharply after the exit polls confirmed how rubbish these survey polls were. Now, it the IMF and Greek payment situation, which many thought that the country will not be able to put it together and this has dragged the euro from its recent highs. But, it has been confirmed by the Greek officials that the country has orders the payment yesterday- a day earlier than it was due. This has eased off those concerns and it may resume the rally for the euro currency pair- EUR/USD and it could take out its recent ceiling with minuscule efforts.
The move by the Greek officials could bring out a little more softer side of the IMF/the ECB and perhaps, there may be less toe dragging exercise to unlock the 7.2 billion euro payment. The IMF was already questioning their decision if they have been gone way out of their ways during their previous loan agreement and this was elevating the tensions if they should sanction any future loans. Nevertheless, Greece honouring their payments and paying their bills on time could bring more fruitful outcomes for the country.
However, the problems are far from over for Greece as it is one hurdle at one time. After every challenge successfully accomplished unfolds another hurdle which sets the bar even higher than the previous one. One can only imagine how difficult it is for Mr Tsipras to bring its country back on the growth track. The focus will turn towards the efforts and meetings to unlock the most wanted 7.2 billion euro payment from its creditors so that the country can pay its bills. Every dialogue and movement will be dissected by the markets and investors will try to make any sense of it so that they can position themselves for the most likely outcome without being caught on the wrong side of the trade.
Even if the country does achieve this medal by bending to creditor’s wish list, the most disturbing, and yet the most demanding situation will take birth when the country will have to ask for their next bailout package. In short, the path is still very long and very steep and we are from seeing the light at the end of this tunnel, but there is a strong hope that both parties will make reasonable efforts to keep on avoiding any thorny sides and work their way around it.
As for the rest of the Europe, the European equities are still popular among investors, however, the risk to reward ratio is not that favourable, as it was at the beginning of the year.