AvaTrade - Analytics

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    Global Forecast-2015

    US

    GDP GROWTH FORECAST: 2.3% in 2014 3.0% in 2015
    MAJOR 2015 EVENTS: Fed rate hiking cycle could commence around mid of this year. Republican-controlled Congress will presents many challenges for Democratic president.
    BIGGEST NEAR- TERM CONCERNS: The most important affair is the timing and pace of first rate increase because  this could roil financial markets. Also important to keep an eye n the housing  market which has not revived with the rest of the economy.
    Long Term Investmnet Challenge: Persistent and increasing dollar strength could become a problem and this may start to to present new challenges and may start to drag the economy lower more than it helps eventually. Growth rate will remain concern may not be able to reach pre-crisis levels.

    POLITICAL CHALLENGE Weak wage growth

     

    Euro Area

    GDP GROWTH FORECAST: 0.8% in 2014 VS 1.1% in 2015
    MAJOR 2015 EVENTS: Rapid expansion of the ECB balance sheet Could certainly take place. The ECB President Draghi’s openness to even more unorthodox QE steps may restore confidence in the region.
    BIGGEST NEAR- TERM CONCERNS: Anemic growth and outright recession will remain a major challenge and  threat of deflation already hitting member of members countries. nations. More stubbornly resist policy solution will be needed.
    LONG-TERM Investment challenge: Lack of business loan is the reason behind the failure of the ECB TLTRO.
    LONG-TERM POLITICAL CHALLENGE: Austerity and mounting tension over debt obligations could bring a wave of  default,

    GERMANY

    GDP GROWTH FORECAST: 1.5% in 2014 vs 1.2%
    MAJOR 2015 EVENTS: Carrying out balanced budget will be the biggest challenge for 2015 will could intensify debate among member states.
    BIGGEST NEAR- TERM CONCERNS: Germany is an exxport-driven economy and it faces strong headwinds from its main trade partners which is struggling Europe and slowing China.
    LONG-TERM Investment: the country has a record of multi-decade neglect of infra structure investment and this seems a poor choice for present and future economic performance.
    FRANCE
    GDP GROWTH FORECAST: 0.4% in 2104 vs 0.8% in 2015
    MAJOR 2015 EVENTS: The continuous weakness in the euro could stimulate elastic export sales. Moreover, new tax credit should supoort corporations.
    BIGGEST NEAR- TERM CONCERNS: the country is facing huge unemployment and persistent low flation. This could stretch tepid house- hold consumption, and bring down the growth prospects.
    LONG-TERM investment: Reverse long decline in economic investment; restore flagging corporate profitability
    Long TERM POLITICAL CHALLENGE: france is notorious in  achieving and maintaining its  budget deficit gap within 3 percent of GDP limit required by European authorities. This could trigger a penalty.

    UNITED KINGDOM

    GDP GROWTH FORECAST: 3% in 2014 vs 2.6%in 2015
    MAJOR 2015 EVENTS: The  BOE could begin hiking its interest rate at mid-year.
    BIGGEST NEAR- TERM CONCERNS: The country is facing challenging for it’s growyb and the productivity has not kept pace with jobs growth.
    LONG-TERM LONG-TERM POLITICAL CHALLENGE: A rise in anti-Europe sentiment could trigger higher volatility with further implications for investment outlook.

    CHINA

    GDP GROWTH FORECAST: 7.4% in 2104 and 7% in 2015
    MAJOR 2015 EVENTS: This year we may hear the PBOC preparing to cut target annual growth rate from 7.5 percent to 7 percent.
    BIGGEST NEAR- TERM CONCERNS: A contracting housing market is the main drag on growth, bringing down the  industrial and consumer sectors. Yuan could continue its slide.

     


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