BMFN - Analytics


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    Real sentiment index: speculators reduce bearish pound bets

    The weekly sentiment index published on Monday revealed that speculators scaled back their bearish bets on the British pound last week, amid easing concerns over the prospect of the U.K. exiting the European Union.

    According to the report, 45.0% of investors were long GBP/USD in the week ended June 17, rising from 28.3% a week earlier.

    Concerns over a possible Brexit subsided after a series of weekend polls showed the campaign to keep Britain in the EU had regained momentum ahead of Thursday's highly-anticipated referendum.

    Meanwhile, 35.1% of investors held long positions in EUR/USD as of last week, improving from 22.8% in the preceding week.

    Amongst the safe-haven currencies, 39.5% of market participants held long positions in USD/JPY, compared to 35.4% in the previous week, while 46.0% of investors were long USD/CHF, declining from 51.3%.

    In the commodity-linked currencies space, 46.3% were long USD/CAD, dropping from 49.8% a week earlier, 45.4% held long positions in AUD/USD, compared to 38.4% in the preceding week, while 31.2% were long NZD/USD, down from 36.6% a week earlier.

    The report also showed that 61.0% of market participants held long positions in gold futures as of last week, gaining from 57.8% in the preceding week.

    Elsewhere, 58.6% of investors were long the S&P 500, rising sharply from 21.6% a week earlier.

    A reading between 50%-70% is bullish for the instrument, a reading between 30% and 50% is bearish, a reading above 70% indicates overbought conditions and a reading below 30% indicates oversold conditions.

    The series of indexes is developed in-house. Each index measures overall exposure to major currency pairs, commodities and indexes, using data from futures exchanges and OTC providers on all long and short open positions.

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