- SEB (based on Reuters)
A belief in a bearish outlook did not justify itself, as the multi-month down-trend was violated yesterday, giving the Sterling room to recover. There may be a short-term downward correction from 1.54 (weekly R1 and 55-day SMA), but new support at 1.53 is supposed to act as a floor. GBP/USD is now expected to test the 100-day SMA at 1.56 in the coming weeks. Another important resistance is at 1.5850, where the monthly R2 coincides with 2013 Q4 low.
So far Pound's appreciation has not affected the distribution between the bulls (51%) and the bears (49%). On the other hand, the share of the sell orders 50 pips from the spot keeps increasing, it has already reached 65%.