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    NZD/USD breaks 55-day SMA

    © Dukascopy Bank SA
    "They have no choice but to resort to intervention to weaken the exchange rate. If they were to cut interest rates, then it runs the risk of a hotter domestic economy and housing market."
    - ABN Amro (based on Bloomberg)


    Pair's Outlook
    NZD/USD stays on a bearish path, as the 55-day SMA has been largely ignored, though there is still the monthly pivot point left. Right now the pair is eroding 0.7444/41, and a close under this area is likely to lead to a sharp and substantial decline, since there are no significant levels (except for the weekly S3 at 0.7340) until 0.7250. There we can expect bulls to become more active. The next major level will be 0.7114, namely the 2011 low.

    Traders' Sentiment
    Although not as extremely as yesterday, but NZD/USD appears to be oversold in the SWFX market: 70% of open positions are short. As for the orders, the buy ones lost their majority and now constitute only 39% of all the commands placed 100 pips around the spot.
    © Dukascopy Bank SA

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