Dukascopy - Analytics


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    USD/CAD to make a U-turn at 1.20

    © Dukascopy Bank SA
    "I wouldn't be surprised if he [Stephen Poloz] sounded meaningfully more cautious on Tuesday, based on that softer U.S. growth outlook. They have to be looking at a downgrade to their U.S. forecast. That's clearly a downside risk to Canadian growth."
    - Benjamin Reitzes, BMO Capital markets (based on Reuters)

    Pair's Outlook
    Since mid-March the exchange rate has fallen from 1.28 to 1.20. However, considering where the currency pair is now, the bears are unlikely to remain in control for any longer. Demand at 1.20 is not only provided by the 200-day SMA, but also by the multi-month up-trend. As a result, we hold a bullish bias towards the US Dollar, which appears to be in a perfect position to recover, also taking into account the monthly technical studies.

    Traders' Sentiment
    The attitude of the SWFX market participants remains positive towards the Greenback, but there are relatively less bulls (57%) than before the weekend (60%). At the same time, the market is equally divided between the buy and sell commands.
    © Dukascopy Bank SA

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