Dukascopy - Analytics


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    XAU/USD: risks skewed to the downside

    © Dukascopy Bank SA
    "We still remain somewhat cautious about gold over the short-term, and suspect that the dollar could start to push higher over the balance of the week, possibly triggered by Wednesday's upbeat Fed policy statement."
    - INTL FCStone (based on CNBC) 

    Pair's Outlook 
    The market is in a wait-and-see mode before the FOMC statement, but later in the day we are likely to see a spike in the volatility. The most probable move is to the downside towards the weekly S1, while in the longer-term the price is inclined to head in the direction of the 2010 low and 2008 high. This will be the main test of the sustainability of the current bearish momentum. However, an unexpected Fed outcome in the form of a later rate hike is unlikely to leave 1,100 intact. We will then look for a test of the 2014 low at 1,131. 

    Traders' Sentiment 
    The sentiment is somewhat less bullish than yesterday, but still an overwhelming majority of the market participants, namely 72% of them, continue to hold long positions on gold.
    © Dukascopy Bank SA

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