Dukascopy - Analytics


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GBP/USD risks retreating to 1.56

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"Markets are less convinced that a Fed hike is imminent. The odds were seen as 50:50 at the start of last week, but they have now been pared back to just a 1:3 chance. The longer this market volatility persists, the longer those odds will get."
- ANZ (based on WBP Online)

Pair's Outlook
The Cable's volatility to the upside was limited by the Bollinger band and weekly R1 last Friday, ultimately nullifying the rally. As a result, the GBP/USD currency pair added only one pip, diminishing its growth rate to a minimum. Consequently, the tide is expected to turn and the Sterling to decline towards the 1.5653 level, namely the weekly pivot point. A stronger cluster around 1.56 is likely to prevent any substantial losses, while we should not rule out the probability of a surge above 1.57, amid US Dollar's possible weakness after Fed official's speech today.

Traders' Sentiment
Bulls pushed closer to the equilibrium, as 49% of all positions are long, up from 47%. The share of buy orders slid from 69 to 68%.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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