Dukascopy - Analytics


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    EUR/USD to see rising volatility this week

    © Dukascopy Bank SA
    "It's probably reasonable to think we can spend time down below $1.05 now."
    - National Australia Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)

    Pair's Outlook
    EUR/USD bounced back from 1.0730 on Friday and posted an 80-pip loss during the trading session. Monday is important day in terms of EU and US fundamentals. A possible Fed announcement to raise a discount rate may easily push EUR/USD below 1.06. We are looking at Apr low at 1.0519 as the next reliable support for this currency pair. This level is guarded by monthly/weekly S2 and lower Bollinger band, which are highly unlikely to give up quickly.

    Traders' Sentiment
    We continue observing the bullish lead over bears of around six percentage points, which makes it a 53-47% distribution of trades opened in the SWFX market. Despite that, only 32% of traders have set their pending orders in 100-pip range to go long on the common European currency. 

    © Dukascopy Bank SA

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