- UBS (based on Bloomberg)
The Kiwi weakened against its US counterpart on Thursday, but failed to retreat towards the 55-day SMA, as the 20-day one limited the losses at 0.6568. The US Dollar is currently driving the NZD/USD down, due to the December rate hike hype. Despite these losses, the strong cluster of supports around 0.6550 could still diminish the exchange rate's fall. As technical indicators are emitting mixed signals, the possibility of a rally towards 0.6620, namely the resistance trend-line, exists. Nevertheless, the base case scenario is a close around 0.6540 in face of the 100-day SMA.
Still 63% of traders are long the Kiwi, while the portion of commands to acquire the NZ Dollar edged up from 29 to 39%.