Dukascopy - Analytics


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    USD/JPY on the brink of plunging to 4.5-month low

    © Dukascopy Bank SA
    "After JPY short positions are unwound, USD/JPY depreciation should slow. In addition, mid-term flows remain large net JPY selling in 2016, in our view. From a supply-demand perspective, we see only limited downside risks for USD/JPY from the current level."
    - Nomura (based on FXStreet)

    Pair's Outlook
    Even a positive reading of the employment data Tuesday was insufficient to help the USD/JPY recover. However, the because of that data the pair failed to drop as low as Oct 2015 low, but another devaluation of the Yuan today triggered a buying spree of safe haven currencies, such as the Yen, pushing the Greenback down to 117.63. The Oct 2015 low might still be sufficient to limit intraday losses, but the key support is the monthly S2 at 117.63, a breach of which is to set the USD/JPY on the path to a one-year low of 115.85.

    Traders' Sentiment
    The gap between bulls and bears keeps narrowing, as 44% of traders are now long the Buck, while the remaining 56% are short. At the same time, the portion of buy orders edged down 6% points to 53%.

    © Dukascopy Bank SA

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