- Ayako Sera, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
The pair dipped under the 200-day SMA yesterday, which reinforces our near-term bearish outlook on the Euro. The intraday rallies are now to be contained by a new resistance level at 1.1046, while the immediate target is a cluster of supports at 1.0972/54. There, solid demand is implied by the lower bound of the channel, monthly R1, and 100-day SMA, and the price should thus bottom out and commence a multi-week recovery here.
The SWFX market is in perfect equilibrium with respect to the European currency—50% of positions are long and 50% are short. Concerning the orders, there is only a slight advantage of sell commands (55%) over the buy ones (45%).