- U.S. Bank Wealth Management (based on Bloomberg)
As we are entering the vital FOMC-led week today, the outlook for EUR/USD remains cautiously optimistic, particularly because the Fed is not forecasted to raise interest rates. The pair is largely backed by the 1.1050/00 area, where the 200-day SMA coincides with the 20-day SMA and monthly pivot point. Additionally, the 55-day SMA is placed at 1.0986. We see no failure here in the nearest future, as the base scenario implies a growth beyond the monthly R1 at 1.1227. The most important intermediate resistance is Feb high at 1.1377, followed by the four-month uptrend at about 1.1460.
Over the weekend the share of long traders has lost four percentage points to 43%. Alongside, pending commands in 100-pip range from the spot price are now fully equally divided between the bulls and bears.