Dukascopy - Analytics


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    USD/CAD to keep sliding down

    © Dukascopy Bank SA
    "Our Economists have kept their expectation for the terminal rate unchanged at 3.38%, so that their forecast change makes the hiking cycle a bit slower (by two quarters), but not smaller. We therefore see some near-term downside risk to our bullish [US] Dollar view, but less change to the long-run fundamental view." 
    - Goldman Sachs (based on WBP Online)

    Pair's Outlook 
    Upon putting the 1.30 major level to the test, the USD/CAD currency pair appears to have lost the bullish momentum and is slowly, but steadily, moving downward. Even though daily technical studies are unable to confirm this, the weekly ones are giving distinctly bearish signals. The decline is likely to last until around 1.2750, where the 20-day SMA, the weekly and the monthly PPs form a rather strong demand area. Meanwhile, the 1.30 area is reinforced by the monthly R1, the 55-day SMA and the Bollinger band, making this cluster difficult to penetrate, therefore, the base case scenario is another decline. 

    Traders' Sentiment 
    For the third day this week bulls take up 53% of the market. Meanwhile, the number of orders to acquire the Greenback added 19 percentage points. The orders now take up 70% of the market.
    © Dukascopy Bank SA

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